1888

The year 1888 enters the discussion as a historical warning: the collapse of Ritter Island in New Guinea generated waves, yet the amount of rock involved was barely one per cent of the landslide that could occur off La Palma. In Stanley Frost’s argument, that contrast makes the danger difficult to dismiss even as its timing remains uncertain.

The 1888 precedent

Frost invokes the collapse of Ritter Island as one example of a volcanic island failure that generated waves. He places it beside the 1741 eruption of Oshima-Oshima in Japan, which triggered waves thirty metres high, using both events to show that volcanic activity and collapsing island slopes had already produced destructive consequences.

Scale and warning

The comparison turns on the difference in scale: according to Frost, the rockfall at Ritter Island amounted to barely one per cent of the much larger slide that could take place at La Palma. The historical reference therefore does more than establish that island collapses can generate waves; it sharpens the possible magnitude of the future threat. Frost argues that the uncertainty concerns when such a collapse might happen, not whether the danger should be taken seriously.